Projecting regions of North Atlantic right whale, Eubalaena glacialis, habitat suitability in the Gulf of Maine for the year 2050

North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) are critically endangered, and recent changes in distribution patterns have been a major management challenge. This study used three species distribution modeling algorithms — generalized additive models, boosted regression trees, and artificial neural networks — together with historical whale abundance data (1993–2009) and environmental covariate data (sea surface temperature, bottom water temperature, bathymetry, a modeled Calanus finmarchicus habitat index, and chlorophyll), to build monthly ensemble models of past E. glacialis habitat suitability in the Gulf of Maine. The models were projected onto the year 2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios. The 2050 projections indicate decreased habitat suitability across the Gulf of Maine from July through October, with a northeastward shift toward the Scotian Shelf, suggesting that regions outside current conservation focus areas may become increasingly important habitat for the species.